Jacksonville and Cincinnati kick things off in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football. Check out the betting breakdown for insight on what picks to make.
Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday night when Joe Burrow and the Bengals play host to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Cincinnati, who are off to a 2-1 Straight Up and Against The Spread start behind the solid play of Burrow under center, will look to send struggling rookie Lawrence to his fourth straight defeat.
After a 27-24 overtime win over Minnesota in their season opener, the Bengals split their next two road games with a loss to Chicago in Week 2 followed by a 24-10 victory over AFC North rival Pittsburgh last Sunday.
The Jaguars, who have lost 18 consecutive games -including seven in a row by double digits, have been installed as more than a touchdown underdog by oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends and Info
- Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jacksonville (+275) | Cincinnati (-350)
- Total: 46– Over (-110) | Under 46 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: JAX 37% | CIN: 63%
- Game Info: Thursday September 30, 2021 8:20 pm EST | NFL Network
The line has held firm since its opening in favor of Cincinnati as a 7.5-point home favorite over the Jaguars at SI Sportsbook. The total, which opened at 45, has begun to see action to the over, pushing the line up to 46.
Public steam has failed to push this number up after its opening, despite significant money in support of the home Bengals. The Jaguars (0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS), have been outscored 91-53 in their first three games, will not find easy sledding as they try to cover the spread for the first time in 2021.
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Jaguars Player Prop Info
It has been a tumultuous start for the 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick. Lawrence is tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions. On a short week, the rookie could be in for a long night if he does not improve his accuracy. The former Clemson standout has the worst completion percentage (54.2%) in the NFL. The young signal-caller will now face a Bengals defense that ranks sixth in points allowed (18.0) and fourth in sacks (10) through the first three weeks.
Cincinnati has been stout on the ground allowing the eighth fewest rushing yards (78.3), likely meaning that the Jaguars will need to heavily lean on Lawrence and the passing game to earn their first win of the season. The passing attack is led by a trio of wideouts which includes Marvin Jones, DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Oddsmakers are projecting that Jones will lead the game in receiving yards as most books around the country are hanging his projected receiving betting market around 70.5. My projections have Jones struggling to surpass his betting number as he has only topped that number once in three games.
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Bengals Player Prop Info
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals will be without star wide receiver Tee Higgins (shoulder). However, Joe Burrow has been reunited with his LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase and the duo has shined with the rookie wideout posting 16 receptions for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the first three games. Burrow has completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 640 yards and seven touchdowns. The second-year signal-caller has thrown two-plus touchdowns in every game this season and now faces a Jaguars defense that has already allowed Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray to all throw for 300-plus passing yards.
Besides Chase, Joe Burrow is surrounded by a wealth of offensive talent led by star running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Mixon ranks second in the NFL with 286 rushing yards from scrimmage, only behind Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (353), and is going up against a Jaguars defense surrendering 115 rushing yards per game. Mixon and his playmaker at receiver face a Jaguars defense surrendering 30.3 points per game and thus several players from Cincinnati should likely find the end zone on Thursday night.
My projections suggest bettors should back Burrow throwing multiple touchdowns with strong target volume to Chase and Boyd. Although Mixon is a near-lock to score at least once in this matchup, his prohibitive -165 odds makes it a hard pass. Instead, we will take a stab with Chase (+100) in his any-time touchdown market offering at SI Sportsbook.
Frank's Thursday Night Football Betting Advice
Although I am never thrilled about laying more than a touchdown, the Bengals offense is too good for a Jaguars defense surrendering the fifth-most points per game. On the flip side, starting a rookie on a short week against a defense that is allowing the eighth fewest yards per game (327) is too big a task for the winless Jaguars. Lay the wood, and buy the hook, with the more talented team on both sides of the ball.
BET:
Cincinnati -7 (-130) - (Buy the hook)
Any-time touchdown player prop bets:
Bengals Wide Receiver Ja'Marr Chase (+105)
Trends:
- The Jaguars have lost 18 straight games dating back to last season
- The Bengals are 6-3 ATS in its last nine home games
SI BET REVIEW
We had another profitable night on Monday when we hit Dallas -3 as well as our anytime-touchdown investment on Ezekiel Elliott (-125). However, our investment on DeVonta Smith (+180) finding the end zone came up short. Let’s keep it rolling on Thursday!
2021 SI Betting NFL Football: 9-8 ATS
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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