Milwaukee, San Francisco & Tampa Bay's odds shrinking in betting futures as we approach the final month of the 2021 MLB regular season
With a little over 30 games remaining in the 2021 MLB regular season, the oddsmakers have begun to make significant adjustments in their future markets as division races heat up. Focusing on one favorite or spotting a longshot who offers long-term value remains the best way to attack futures betting.
Let’s take a deeper look into the risers and fallers in each respective offering.
2021 WORLD SERIES FUTURES ODDS
ON THE MOVE
The Los Angeles Dodgers (+250) remain overwhelming favorites in the eyes of the oddsmakers to win the 2021 World Series. Jockeying behind the Dodgers on the overall odds board are four teams. The Milwaukee Brewers are at +700. The next three teams are tied at +800: Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay, who have won eight consecutive games, has opened up a seven-game lead in the AL East over the Yankees. The red-hot Yankees, who are 8-3 in their last 11 games, offer solid double-digit value at 10/1.
This week's biggest move belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who have attained a firm grip on first place in the NL Central. In World Series odds, Milwaukee was being offered at +1600 last month only to see a sizable reduction this week down to their lowest odds of the season at +700.
LOSING RESPECT
The Philadelphia Phillies, despite being 11 games over .500 at home (39-28) and possessing a strong NL CY Young candidate in Zach Wheeler, are being written off by oddsmakers in World Series Futures. The Phillies, now 3.5-games out in the NL East, see their World Series odds rise from 40/1 to +300/1.
In addition, the New York Mets - who are just 3-7 over their last 10 games, have fallen 7.0-games behind the Braves in the race for the NL East crown. The oddsmakers, who were offering the Mets at odds of 40/1 last week, have lost faith in the boys from Queens offering the club at their highest odds of 2021 at 2000/1.
2021 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The Tampa Bay Rays, who have posted a record of 27-9 (.750) over their last 36 games, remain in a three-way tie this week in AL Pennant Futures with the White Sox and Astros at odds of +325.
The New York Yankees, 21-6 (.777) in August, continue to offer solid value at +450. Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Anthony Rizzo have made the Yankees a team to be feared in October. There simply may not be a better lineup in all of baseball.
2021 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The Dodgers, who have a 12.5-game lead in the National League Wild Card race, continue to own the top perch atop the NL Pennant odds board (+120) well ahead of San Francisco, who sit at +450.
I will continue to stress it, but the lack of respect for a Giants club that owns the best record (84-47) in Major League Baseball continues to lead to immense value for bettors. San Francisco has the second-best run differential (+142) in the National League while owning the best home record at 42-19 (.689) in all of baseball.
The biggest move over the past week belongs to the Brewers - who opened up a 9.0-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. The Brewers, offered at odds of +500 last week, have now moved ahead of the Giants at +350.
2021 PLAYER BETTING FUTURES
In the Cy Young betting markets, Vegas sportsbooks are very happy to see the recent struggles of Chicago White Sox’s Lance Lynn. The veteran who was -200 to win the AL Cy Young award last week is now +195 after going winless (0-1) in August with a 4.67 ERA in five starts. Last week we shared that the absolute value in the market fell upon Gerrit Cole at +195. Cole, who is 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA, has been lights out in August, posting a 3-0 record with a 0.51 ERA in three victories over the Angels, Twins and Athletics. Oddsmakers have made a major adjustment with Cole as the prohibitive favorite (-165) on the AL Cy Young betting board.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Over in the National League, Los Angeles Dodgers hard-throwing ace Walker Buehler who was (+165) last week, is now the -110 favorite for NL Cy Young. Oddsmakers now have moved Buehler into a dominant betting position over Corbin Burnes (+200) of the Brewers and Zach Wheeler of the Phillies (+550).
The best value on the board continues to be Max Scherzer at +1600. The veteran, who is now 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and a minuscule 0.88 WHIP, has not lost since May 30 and is 4-0 with 1.55 ERA in five starts since being acquired from the Washington Nationals.
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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