SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Wednesday's MLB betting action and shares the two top picks on his baseball betting card
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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Second overall in the MLB standings, Boston hosts last-place Detroit in the second of a three-game series tonight. Game time for the Red Sox vs. Tigers matchup is slated for 7:06 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston. This is the second of six meetings this season between these former AL East Division rivals. After jumping out to a 9–2 fifth-inning lead, Boston posted an 11–7 win last night. The Red Sox had 14 hits, including four home runs, and snapped a mini two-game losing streak. Boston has outscored Detroit 54–29 during a six-game winning streak that dates back to the 2019 season.
After opening the season with a 6–6 record, Detroit (8–22) has lost 16 of their last 18 games. The Tigers are last overall in the AL Central standings and sit 9.0 games behind Chicago and Kansas City, who are tied for the division lead. Nothing is working for Detroit as they average just 2.86 runs per game on offense and allow 5.06 runs on defense. After posting a 5–2 win against the White Sox in Chicago, Detroit has been outscored 43–12 during six losses to open a nine-game road trip. Including six shutout losses, the Tigers have scored two runs or less during 13 of the last 17 games.
Boston (18–12) is first overall in the AL East standings, and they are 2.5 games ahead of New York and Tampa Bay. After opening the season with three losses at home against Baltimore, the Red Sox outscored their opponents by a 67–30 margin during a 13-game winning streak. Cooling off slightly, Boston has a 9–9 record over their last 18 games. That includes a 3–1 series loss on the road in Texas before this series. The Rangers, who sit last in the AL West, outscored the Red Sox by an 18-16 margin. Overall, Boston averages 4.86 runs per game on offense and allows 4.16 runs on defense.
Struggling starters meet in the pitching matchup tonight. RHP Casey Mize (1–3, 5.06 ERA) is making his sixth start for Detroit. After allowing just one run during his first two starts, Mize has given up 14 runs over 15.2 innings during his last three starts. LHP Martín Pérez (0-2, 4.70 ERA) is making his sixth start for Boston. He allowed 25 hits and 13 runs, over 23.0 innings, during his first five starts. Perez has a 0–5 record, plus four no-decisions, during nine starts at home over two seasons with Boston. A game against the slumping Tigers should snap that winless streak. Bet the run line and back Boston.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+108) run line
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Aiming to avoid their first series sweep this season, Los Angeles closes out a three-game set in Chicago tonight. The first pitch for the Dodgers vs. Cubs contest is at 7:41 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. This is the third of seven meetings this season. After getting rained out on Monday, these teams played a doubleheader yesterday. The Cubs scored four runs in the first inning and cruised to the 7–1 win in the first game. Tied 1–1 after seven innings, both teams scored two runs in the eighth inning of the second game. Chicago scored one run in the bottom of the ninth to post a 4–3 win.
Los Angeles (17–13) was the hottest team in the league during the first two weeks of the season. Not showing any signs of a World Series hangover, the defending champions had an MLB best 13–2 record on April 17. The Dodgers have cooled off considerably as they have lost 12 of the last 16 games. Following two series losses at home, 3–1 to San Diego and 2–1 to Cincinnati, the Dodgers opened an 11-game road trip with a 3–1 series loss in Milwaukee. They avoided a sweep with a 16–4 win against the Brewers. One run has decided seven of the Dodgers’ 12 recent losses and two of their wins.
Chicago (14–16) has been on a rollercoaster ride during their first 30 games. After opening the season with a 10–9 record, the Cubs lost seven of nine games before this series. The slump started with a 2–1 series loss at home to Milwaukee. Heading out on the road, Chicago won 9–3 to avoid a sweep during a 3–1 series loss in Atlanta. Between 8–6 and 13–12 F/10 losses, the Cubs won 3–2 during a 2-1 series loss in Cincinnati. Chicago has a .225 team batting average and a 4.81 team ERA. They rank 24th overall in both categories. The Cubs have not swept the Dodgers since 2008.
RHP Walker Buehler (1–0, 3.16 ERA) is making his sixth start for Los Angeles. He is looking to bounce back after allowing five runs on seven hits over 6.1 innings during the Dodgers 6–5 loss to Cincinnati on April 27. RHP Adbert Alzolay (1–2, 4.71 ERA) is making his fifth start for Chicago. In his last start on April 29, Alzolay allowed two runs over 6.0 innings during the Cubs 9–3 win against Atlanta. The Dodgers have avoided a sweep with a win in the final game of their last two series. With an edge in the pitching matchup, expect that trend to continue tonight. Bet the run line and back Los Angeles.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+106) run line
2021 MLB Regular Season Betting Record: 18–22 (-6.45 Units)
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